I reinstalled the poll plugin so let’s try one:
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Part of me expects Obama to win, because I long ago carefully perfected my ability to maintain low expectations when it comes to results I want so that I’m almost never disappointed or driven to rage with frustration. Living in Europe for 4 years has honed that skill to ninja-level.
But my gut is telling me this is Romney’s election. I’m not remotely smart enough to do one of those electoral-vote-prediction maps like some of you do, but I really suspect he’ll win.
Maybe.
Paul T. listed his Election Night playlist in the forums and I’ve been trying to come up with my own. Since I’m a pessimist at heart, this is the main song streaming constantly through my head like someone is beating me with a high-pitched falsetto bat:
What a fool believes, she sees…and is totally totally wrong because nooooo. You can’t have nice things so stop asking!
On the other hand, I feel like something awesome is gonna happen. When I think about tomorrow, I act like this kid in the red shirt.
Ace is reporting the Gallup lead for Romney is down to one (from five previously). That’s not helping my nerves.
Michael Barone is the only person whose prediction on voting that I would trust to be right. He says Romney.
http://jewishworldreview.com/michael/barone110512.php3#.UJgDP2fDA_w
He’s a former democratic pollster who could tell you who any district voted for during, at least, the last 60 years, off the top of his head. He is very impressive with the polling and voting numbers.
I expect Romney to win the popular vote. The EC will be tied. How’s that for a bold prediction.
I’m g0ing to be listening to China Grove by the Doobies. This is a “good luck” song for me. It has always been on the radio or in the background of the BEST events in my life…kind of a strange thing because I don’t own a single Doobie Brother record, but there it is.
China Grove.
Oh, and Wang Chung because — dancing…
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and Ballroom Blitz because — stupid dancing…
and, of course, Whip It because I like the cowboys and the bull whip. And because we’re going to WHIP IT GOOD!
@Steve D.: What’s the tie breaker in the case of a tied EC? Popular vote? I would have thought there would be an odd number of electoral college votes to avoid such a situation.
I’m afraid to even click on the poll lest I jinx something (yes, I am crazy). However, my polling place has been moved to my church – walking distance from my house. I am taking that as A Sign™
The tiebreaker if the EC is deadlocked is a vote by the House, one vote per state (so they have to have a vote among the representatives in each state), to appoint the President. The Senate votes to appoint a Veep.
@Patrick: Interesting – thanks. I’m not sure why I didn’t just google it…
BTW, I heard somewhere that if Romney wins, Hillary said she would shave her mustache. That should be reason enough to vote for Romney.
@mw: What Patrick said. And a quick count of red states versus blue states tells you that an EC tie is a Romney win.
I will dance and scream and sing if Romney wins.
If he loses….
General election season history:
Part I: Barry has a small but consistent lead, bolstered by the unending attacks on Romney, portraying him as a cross between Hitler and Genghis Khan, only less nice.
Part II: Barry drops an enormous turd onstage in the first debate, while Romney appears, uh, presidential. Polls start moving Romney’s way the left collectively wets itself.
Part III: Slow Joe shows up as himself at the debate. The left celebrates his amazing victory over Ryan, but the general electorate seems to not see how freakishly awesome Biden was, seeing instead a jackasss acting like himself onstage. The Mittmentum slows, but keeps moving in the right direction.
Part IV: Presidential debates 2 and 3 are given to Barry by the press, but seem to have little to no impact on the electorate
Part V: A gigantic combination storm crushes the northeast. Barry shows up for a photo op wearing a bomber jacket. Press has non-stop orgasms over how awesome his ass looks in that jacket. People around the country are reminded that while Obama is a petulant, whiny, narcissistic man-child, he is still the president. For some reason, this starts to tighten the poll numbers while Obama goes back on the road for more campaign stops.
[ed. note: my faith in humanity, which I assumed could not be lower, reaches a new bottom, somewhere near the Mariana’s Trench.]
Part VI: Election Day arrives. People in record numbers go to the polls and… here is where I run out of steam. Either the country chooses to try and avoid a Greece-style disaster, or it chooses permanent decline, with the government becoming more and more intrusive on your everday life. Don’t like GM? Tough shit: we’re taking money of your paycheck for that new car you should have bought, you selfish bastard. Don’t like the green pus we’re serving your kids at school? Tough shit: you’ll not only eat it at home, you’ll go on TV to tell everyone how it’s the greatest thing ever, next to Obama anyway.
As I mentioned, I have little to no faith in my fellow man. Heck, I’m not even sure that Romney/Ryan can turn this mess around. I do know that voting for the other guys means that we won’t even try.
Oh, I’m so on edge! The irritability! I want to curl up and go to sleep, or dive into a book, or SOMETHING that will pass the time painlessly so I don’t have to keeeeeeeeep waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaitiiiiiiiiiiing!
I’m accomplishing nothing around the house besides roaming around looking for a mental escape.
Read things on the internet. Tug at my hair. Read some more. Scowl at the laundry that needs folding. Read again while compulsively squeezing my hand strengthening putty until the soreness finally penetrates my brain and I realize I’ve enraged my hand and forearm muscles. Put the putty away. Resist the urge to rock back and forth. Realize behavior is not normal or healthy. Do the HALT check. Yes, hungry. Should have eaten lunch an hour ago. Remind self to live in the present, not the future. And the present demands food. Scold self: GO EAT!
Best quote I’ve seen so far comes from Stephen Green:
I think it’s a digestive problem as my stomach has been hurting for days. And I’ve spent so much on dental work that it’s not a good idea for me to bite my fingernails.
Speaking of Cowboys, that made me go and find a youtube of the Leningrad Cowboys doing Sweet Home Alabama with the Red Army Chorus backing them up. It’s a cheerful version of the song, and the Chorus look like they’re having a blast.
I’m rather glad I’m working the polls tomorrow, since that should keep me busy enough, and I won’t be able to check exit polls and the like every five minutes, so I might have a few shreds of sanity left by the end of the day.
I expect the Democratic press to drag Obama kicking and screaming over the finish line. I will be pleasantly surprised if R/R pulls this out in the end.
@Physics Geek: Yeah, that. I’ve got no nails left. If I could contort enough I suppose I’d need to go wash my feet so I can chew on my toes as well.
I’m in Blue-Maryland. PG Cowknee. As blue as it gets. And I haven’t seen the sea of Obama signs or bumper stickers. I don’t seen the endless t-shirts with the haloed one. It’s tense here. Very tense.
I feel like Bilbo Baggins, like butter spread over too much toast.
Okay, it’s finally happening: I’m having trouble concentrating on work today. I keep thinking about more and more poll analyses and I sneak a quick peek at them, which serves only to knot up my stomach some more. We’re seeing a bimodal distribution: race tied with independents +15 for Romney. While that could happen in California, I don’t see it happening in the swing states. So both cannot possibly be true. Okay, they could possibly both be true, but it would be something completely without precedent.
I’m looking forward to my son’s Cub Scout den meeting tonight as it will take my mind off of the election for a little while. And since I’m the popcorn Kernel this year (yeah, I got stuck with it) I’ll have more to do after the meeting, which will also keep my mind trouble free for a while. Once that’s done, though, it’s back to fretting. A lot. And it will continue throughout the day tomorrow and late into the evening. Hopefully an early night, but I’m standing by my prediction of Wisconsin putting R/R over the top. I would dearly love to be proven wrong with an OH, MI or PA win.
Gotta make sure that I’ve got enough really strong beer chilled. Tomorrow night will either be the biggest electoral celebration in history, or the biggest liver damaging night of my life. Actually, those two things aren’t necessarily exclusive, but I’d much rather the damage be done whilst happy.
@Vivian Louise:
I’m reminded of a Normism:
I know it’s Noonan, but it’s an interesting and positive piece:
Oops, here’s the link
@Buttercup: You forgot the Safety Dance! Hahahaha.
@Physics Geek: Fantastic rundown of the history, and I agree in terror with Part VI. I just don’t have enough faith that enough people aren’t Honey Boo-Boo. And your later @comment here – yeah. I’m sweatin’ it. I wish I had something to distract me. It’s 9:25 p.m. in Turin and all I can do is drink and look for GIFs to express my existential crisis.
@Vivian Louise: “I feel like Bilbo Baggins, like butter spread over too much toast.” Oh that is marvelous. Perfectly apt and I thank you for it because it cheered me up.
George Will came up with the same electoral numbers I did the other night, so it’s making me feel super-duper smart, if only for a brief 48-72 hours.
And let’s not forget that the Panthers beat the Redskins yesterday, which is a sure sign of a Romney victory.
@Rachel Lucas:
Sadly, I would violate some nonsensical federal statute about “fitness for duty” if I were to start drinking now. FWIW, this election is making lean in the direction of breaking the law.
Hey, get some sleep before tomorrow night. Win, lose or draw (which would be a win, albeit one with Uncle Choo-Choo still as VP), this blog, along with a few select others, will be my stop for election celebration or crying, which means that you have to stay awake. Or not. Not like there’s anything I can do to make you, except maybe beg.
@Tim: I was feeling pretty stressed til I saw the Barone prediction too. I believe in Michael Barone.
@Rachel Lucas:
Naaah…just left it for you to post!
I got tired of linking to youtube videos! HAHAHAHAHA!
One of my favorite videos…with them dancing in the fields like that. Stupid silly. Like the 80’s.@Buttercup:
@Jennifer:
I like watching Barone on election night because you see him say things like this:
“Well, in Ward 3 of Connecticut’s first congressional district, Aunt Mabel has voted for a Republican for the last five presidential elections and she tends to have a strong influence on her neighbors owing to her living there for the last 75 years, so I think it’s safe to say that the GOP wins the vote that district due to the 91%-9% tally from Aunt Mabel’s neighborhood.”
Yeah, I’m kind of snarky there, but I swear that he seems to know the electorate, almost down to the household level. In the Dem wave year of 2006, I watched the VA Senate race between George Allen and the what’s his name douchebag. Allen had a clear lead with around 50% of the vote in, but Barone was looking at his charts and said that based on historical polling from the still uncounted districts, that Allen was almost certain to lose. Turns out that he was absolutely correct. My guess is he has a decent feel for this year’s electorate as well. However, I’ve got a bad feeling about what the Chicago machine has managed to do to voting precincts around the country. And I cannot wait to see how many boxes of previously uncounted ballots turn up to magically swing a state or two Barry’s way.
Okay, I’m done being Eeyorish for today. Here’s what I plan on doing if R/R win:
1) Chug two Blithering Idiot barleywines from Weyerbacher.
2) Create a bot for Twitter to keep showing pictures of my bare ass to lefties out there. I’ll only leave it running for a couple of months
3) Capture photos of the crestfallen hosts at MSNBC, CNN, NBC, CBS and ABC and then rotate them daily for my Facebook picture, along with innumerable FB posts about “how did the pundits get it so wrong?” from now until November 2016.
4) Spray weed killer in a Romney/Ryan design on my front yard and then replant that area in red, white and blue flowers. Keep healthy and thriving for the next four years.
Oh, and if Barry somehow wins tomorrow, we’ve got one thing to look forward to: Biden plans to be the nominee in 2016. Right now, I’m praying that that will happen, regardless of tomorrow’s outcome.
@Physics Geek:
For about the past two months, I’ve been making screenshots of all of the Yahoo homepage stories touting Obama’s boss-like lead in the polls. I was thinking of making some sort of collage with them when Romney wins, but I really like the idea of posting them on FB, too.
@Physics Geek: HA! I like your ideas, and I think I might do the same on Facebook. GLOATFEST 2012! Also, oh yes: Biden running in 2016. I presume his primary opponent would be Hillary, and what a joy that horrific scene will be.
@Jenn: If you make any such collage, please share with us. I support this particular artistic endeavor.
I vacillate between feelings of total confidence and superiority to OH DEAR GOD OUR COUNTRY IS IN RUINS AND OF COURSE OBAMA WILL BE RE-ELECTED.
In my gut, though, I really feel like Romney’s got it. Personally, I’m about 200% more excited about this vote than I was in 2008. Not only do I think Romney will be an acceptable President, I think he’ll be GOOD.
Side note: one of my facebook friends posted a picture of Obama hugging Willy Nelson – Willy was wearing a John Lennon shirt that said ‘Love is Real’ .. My friend stated that he was going to post an essay as to why people should vote for Obama, but this one picture said more than he ever could. I wanted to simultaneously throw up, curse him out, bang my head against the wall, and throw my computer out the window. Instead, I merely closed Facebook, vowing that I wouldn’t return until long after the election… Or perhaps in 36 hours for a major gloat fest.
Even though the votes keep increasing, your poll has been deadlocked at 87-13 for hours now. Interesting.
@Physics Geek:
This alone may make it worthwhile to look at Twitter!
I work with Jr. High kids at my church. I have one living in my home. That boy in the red church is a perfect representation of how weird/wonderful they can be! And how we all wish we could act sometimes!
Thought I should throw in the link for the Cowboys.
I can’t believe the highs and lows of the last few days. How can a photo op of Ø prancing around in a bomber jacket – while people in Staten Island were probably still dying – erase four years of failure and villainy? How have we sunk to this point where people who are that easily duped get to decide our future? Ø has now been up in the RCP average for days. Oh, and the capper? Tonight, I learned that my own Son-in-law plans to vote for him. I’m so low right now, I almost couldn’t bring myself to post. If Ø wins, I plan to drink myself into a stupor. A first time for me, but the thought of being conscious of that outcome is unbeable.
Also unbearable. But “unbeable,” too, if it were a word.
While I am somewhat reassured by the reports from Gallup and Rasmussen that the polling data is massively skewed Democrat, I am VERY unsettled to see something like this:
@Physics Geek: Don’t be comparing Genghis Khan to Hitler. Genghis Khan was seriously cool.
God all those .gifs are perfect. I live in Calif. and am in the advanced stage of low expectation syndrome as well. Part of me says we’re just being strung along by the right wing blogosphere. Guys like Rasmussen are saying it’s too close to call and they make their living taking polls. It’s not in their interest to hotwire a poll.
Then the other part of me looks around and says no way can my country double down on this much stupid. Romney in a landslide!
Oh and a short playlist to get the blood pumping.
96 Tears
Mailman
Deguello De Crockett
I honestly wish I could wager a hundred bucks with each and every one of the people who seems so certain that Romney will win, in contravention of every scrap of evidence that was shown to be accurate in the *last* election.
Aren’t you people supposed to be the hard-headed realists here? Sheesh.
@grendelkhan:
Oh no. We are the sister-humping, Bible-thumping, science-hating, slack-jawed, mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging, six-toed bitter clingers.
We hated gays yet are Tea Baggers.
We LOVE war, but don’t want to kill babies. (Does that make us hypocrites?)
We’re the idjits that didn’t build a fucking thing. And if we HAD, it was because of the benevolence of government, doncha know.
I’ll take your bet.
Who told you we were hard-headed realists?
buttercup, thank you for taking the bet! As I am reasonably solvent at the moment, please donate the hundred dollars to the Against Malaria Foundation. (See http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/AMF.) You’ll be saving 5% of a human life, there, which is about as cheap as it gets.
I’ll take a response here as honor-system validation that you’ve followed through. If you are employed, your employer matches chairtable donations, and you do not find the charity’s mission reprehensible, please consider requesting a charity match from your employer to double the utility of your donation.
I assure you, I am not sassing you when I thank you for putting your money where your mouth is; it’s a sadly rare quality these days.
@grendelkhan:
I’m so glad I also popped over here to see that as well as “odious” I am also “reprehensible”. Such lovely sentiments. I’ll add those to the list I supplied to you above. Of course, I had to look up the meaning of both of those words because one of the first things we freedom-loving Neanderthals are is STUPID. Succumbing to and then feeding salacious and avaricious desires through the power of the state is so very much more erudite and nuanced then we are capable of comprehending. It must be galling to have to contend with 1/2 the population who holds the regressive and puritanical view that stealing is stealing, whether one uses the vehicle of the state or one simply dispenses with the middle man and helps oneself. We are retards that way – OH! and we are odious and reprehensible. Thank you.
I responded to you over at my site on the thread in which you requested your donation. It’s a worthy organization and I am happy to donate.
@Buttercup: I’ll try to be more straightforward. You’re not odious, and you’re not reprehensible. I don’t think you’re a Neanderthal, that I’m smarter than you (seriously, I don’t), or that you’re “retarded”.
Sorry if I gave that impression, and again, thanks for having the courage of your convictions. It’s a rare quality in people of any political stripe.